The impact of exchange rate shocks on the consumer price index in Iraq for the period (2020-2022)
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Abstract
The research aims to measure and analyze the impact of positive and negative exchange rate shocks on the consumer price index in Iraq by using monthly data using the (NARDL) model. The results showed that there is a joint integration relationship between parallel exchange rates and the consumer price index in the short term. When exchange rates increase by (1%), this leads to an increase in the consumer price index by (0.018%), while when exchange rates decrease or fall by (1%), this leads to a decrease in the consumer price index by (0.031%). In the long term, when exchange rate increases by (1%), this leads to an increase in the consumer price index by (0.027%), while the decline in exchange rates has a significant negative effect on the consumer price index at a confidence level of (1%). When exchange rates decrease or fall by (1%), this leads to a decrease in the consumer price index by (0.150%). The study also recommended increasing control over the currency selling window to limit exchange rate fluctuations by following up on the economic committees concerned with monitoring changes in market prices. Also, banks should keep pace with the development that has occurred in banks in other countries and use exchange systems that are compatible with the Iraqi economy and bear part of the shocks and circumstances it is going through.
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References
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