Measure and analyze the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on inflation in Iraq using structural tests and Markov models with variable systems
Article Sidebar
THIS IS AN OPEN ACCESS ARTICLE UNDER THE CC BY LICENSE
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study relied on a monthly time series covering the period from January 2005 to September 2019. To study the financial and monetary impact of inflation by choosing the dependent variables public spending, broad money supply (M2) and public debt to measure their impact on inflation to know the financial and monetary decision adopted by the two policy makers during the periods of shocks and crises experienced by the Iraqi economy. Being a rentier economy that depends on crude oil to finance public spending, international oil prices are exposed to many shocks, which generated structural failures in the time series that make it difficult to measure the financial and monetary effects of inflation. We tested Bai-Perron to determine the failures Structural and then measuring the financial and monetary effects during boom and bust systems through Markov models with variable systems. It was noted that there are several structural imbalances and refractions during the research period at a level of significance (5%) for all variables. It aims to identify structural changes for some economic variables. In order to determine the type of this structural change, is it a temporary or permanent shock, or a combination of both. The study recommended that monetary and fiscal policy makers need to coordinate in what between them to reach the best desired economic results, because of this coordination of positive advantages on the economic activity as a whole, as it leads to monetary and fiscal policies that are stable and in harmony with each other, to reach low rates of inflation.
Downloads
Article Details
References
اولاً. المصادر العربية:
عيسى، سعد صالح وإسماعيل، عطية محمد، (2018)، قياس أثر الانفتاح التجاري في النمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (2003-2016) باستخدام انموذج (ARDL)، مجلة تكريت للعلوم الإدارية والاقتصادية المجلد (3)، العدد (43).
يونس، نعمان منذر. جسوم، بكر حميد. إسماعيل، عطية محمد، (2020)، تحليل واقع الفساد المالي والإداري في العراق وفق مؤشر مدركات الفساد CPI للمدة (2003-2018)، رقم البحث (16)، مؤتمر علمي 2020.
إبراهيم، عدي طايس. عيسى، سعد صالح، (2021)، أثر علاقة التبادل التجاري بين العراق وتركيا على النمو الاقتصادي العراقي باستخدام انموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع (ARDL)، مجلة تكريت للعلوم الإدارية والاقتصادية، المجلد (17)، العدد (54)
إبراهيم، عدي طايس. عيسى، سعد صالح، (2021)، قياس إثر الصادرات التركية على النمو الاقتصادي العراق انموذجا للمدة (2004-2019) باستخدام انموذج (VAR)، مجلة تكريت للعلوم الإدارية والاقتصادية، المجلد (17)، العدد (54).
ثانياً. المصادر الأجنبية:
Abdullahi D., Ahmed, (2013), Effects of financial liberalization on financial market development and economic performance of the SSA region: An empirical assessment, journal homepage: www.e lsevier.com/ locate/ecmod.
Adikari, A.M.P., (2012), Financial Liberalization Index for Sri Lanka, Journal of Social Sciences-Sri Lanka.
Alimi, R., Santos, (2014), ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Reexamination of Augmented Fisher Hypotheses in An Open Economy, Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Vol. 2, No. 2.
Arif mohamed, Ahwed. M. Khalid, (2000), Liberalization, Growth, and the Asian Financial Crisis. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Azeez, Bolanle A., (2012), Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Performance of Informal Capital Market, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, Vol 3, No 6.
B. N. Ghosh (2002 ,(Global Financial Crises and Reforms: Cases and Caveats, Routledge.
Evans, Trevor, (2014), The impact of financial liberalisation on income inequality, International Journal of Labour Research, vol. 6, no. 1.
Khalil, Saed and Dombrecht, Michel, (2011), The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to Co-integration Testing: Application to OPT Inflation, Palestine Monetary Authority.
Lars Jonung, (2009), Lessons for China from financial liberalization in Scandinavia, Economic Papers 383. European Communities.
Mahamarn, Vasana, (2010), Financial liberalization in Thailand: Impact on the Growth and Volatility of foreign investment in stock market and the stock market, Master Program in Economic Growth, LUND University.
Merton R.C., (2007), Continuous-Time Finance, 4th ed., Blackwell Publishers Inc.
Mnif, Afef Trabelsi, (2013), The Effects of Financial Liberalization on Stock Market Cycles:Structural Time Series Models, Global Journal of Management and Business Research Interdisciplinary, Volume 13.
Ms. Enrica Detragiache, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, (1998), Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility, International Monetary Fund
Ms. Enrica Detragiache, Asli Demirgüç-Kun, Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility, 1998, International Monetary Fund