Analysis of the impact of the trade balance on GDP in Rwanda and its impact on development for the period (2020-1980)
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Abstract
This study aimed to stand on one of the best development experiences in our modern era, which is the experience of the state of Rwanda, one of the most important African countries because of the pioneering and promising renaissance it achieved in its development path despite the weak capabilities and because it represents a pioneering model in the field of development governance in Africa. Trade is represented in both (exports and imports) on economic growth in Rwanda by focusing on the growth of the domestic product. Trade plays a key role in the economy of Rwanda through its impact on the level of economic growth, the balance of payments, and employment. Therefore, many trade policy reforms aimed at promoting trade were enacted through our study and work on analyzing a time series that extended from the year (1980-2020). Relying on World Bank data as well as data from both the Ministries of Finance and Economic Planning in Rwanda, I tried to answer Several questions, including are exports, imports, and economic growth interrelated? Is there a causal relationship between them? Is there a long- or short-term relationship between these variables? A study has reached results, namely that there is a causal relationship between exports and imports on the one hand and the GDP on the other hand, in the medium and long term, and the existence of a correlation relationship. Therefore, there is a significant effect on economic growth in Rwanda in the short and long term. This effect has a statistical significance, as all variables included in the applied model had an impact in both the short and long term. Also, the model is stable and does not suffer from standard problems, and it can be relied upon in prediction. (EViews 12) the program was used to enter and analyze the research data.
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