Analysis of the reflection of oil price changes on bank credit in Iraq: An econometric study for the period (2006-2021)
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Abstract
The study aimed to investigate the impact of changes in oil prices on bank credit granted in Iraq, both types of pledge and cash. As the bank credit decision is subject to factors and variables that may be governing at times, which raises a number of questions, including the impact of oil price changes on the entire Iraqi economy, including bank credit. To achieve the objective, the study was based on the hypothesis that changes in oil prices affect the volume of bank credit in Iraq. The study relied on the quantitative and standard methodology for the purpose of reaching the results. The study was also applied to the banking sector in Iraq through data for the period (2006-2021). The ARDL model was used to estimate the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variables. The study concluded that the volume of bank credit granted by the banking sector is directly affected by changes in oil prices, and this indicates a structural problem in the Iraqi economy as a result of its excessive dependence on oil. The study recommended the need to diversify sources of income and encourage fields that would support the economy and supplement the budget.
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References
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ـ البنك المركزي، دائرة الاحصاء والأبحاث.