Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Economic Exposure and Export Coverage on the Economic Failure Trinity in Iraq during the Period 2004–2023
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Abstract
This study seeks to analyze and measure the impact of economic exposure and export coverage on the triad of economic failure in Iraq during the period 2004–2023, within the context of the rentier structure of the Iraqi economy and its institutional instability post-2004. The research problem arises from the question of how effective economic exposure and export coverage are in mitigating the manifestations of economic failure, namely inflation, unemployment, and perceived corruption. The study aims to clarify the theoretical frameworks of the economic exposure and export coverage indicators and to assess their effects on economic failure indicators, with a particular focus on understanding the economic relationship among these variables. The study reaches several conclusions, including: first, that economic exposure contributes to higher inflation rates due to the weak productive base and Iraq’s reliance on imports; second, a significant and positive relationship exists between export coverage and corruption, attributed to the dominance of political elites over export revenues especially oil-related in the absence of effective oversight; and third, a significant inverse relationship is found between economic exposure and the unemployment rate in the long term. Based on these findings, the study recommends: first, rationalizing imports and promoting domestic production to curb commodity dumping, second, developing regulatory and institutional frameworks to enhance transparency and reduce corruption associated with the foreign trade sector.
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