Forecasting Tourism Demand in Iraq Using the ARIMAX Model in Light of Cognitive Empowerment and Digital Payments: A Prospective Vision (2026-2030(
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Abstract
This study aims to foresight the future of actual tourism demand in Iraq for the period (2026 - 2030) by transitioning from traditional analysis methods to employing dynamic econometric modeling. The research problem lies in the limitation of univariate time series models to accommodate structural changes resulting from digital transformation and the difficulty of real-time forecasting of tourism flows. To achieve the study's objectives, the research adopted an advanced econometric analysis methodology through the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model. This was implemented to integrate and analyze the time series of the dependent variable, represented by actual tourism demand (measured in millions of tourists), with the independent variables, represented by digital cognitive empowerment and electronic tourism payments for the period (2015 - 2025). The results demonstrated the high efficiency of the ARIMAX model in accurately addressing informational gaps and forecasting tourism demand with greater reliability. Furthermore, the findings confirmed the sustainable positive impact of digital indicators in enhancing the efficiency of the Iraqi tourism sector and anticipating its future growth up to the year 2030. The study concludes by providing a flexible prospective vision that assists decision-makers in formulating tourism strategies that keep pace with global digital transformations and ensure the sustainability of the sector in the face of economic and geopolitical changes.
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