أثر بعض المؤشرات النقدية على الاستثمار المحلي الإجمالي في العراق
محتوى المقالة الرئيسي
الملخص
يهدف البحث الى دراسة أثر بعض المؤشرات النقدية على الاستثمار المحلي الإجمالي في العراق للمدة من ٢٠٠٤-٢٠٢٤، من خلال استخدام تحليل الانحدار المتعدد بالإضافة الي تبني عدد من الاختبارات الإحصائية التي تهدف الي التحقق من صلاحية النموذج المقدم. يظهر من اختبارات جذر الوحدة ان الاستثمار المحلي الإجمالي وأغلب المؤشرات النقدية التي تضمنتها هذا البحث ثابتة عند المستوى ماعدا مؤشر صافي الموجودات المحلية ومؤشر سعر الفائدة (نهاية المدة) حيث انها تختبر ميل عند المستوى ولكنها ثابتة عند الفرق الأول. كما يتبين من اختبار تحليل الانحدار المتعدد أن هناك علاقة معنوية بين كل مؤشرات المتغير المستقل التي تضمنتها البحث والمتغير المعتمد، إضافة الى معنوية المؤشرات المقدمة في النموذج مع بعضها. وتم تبني اختبار التكامل المشترك للاستثمار المحلي الإجمالي مع المؤشرات النقدية للتحقق من وجود علاقة طويلة الاجل ما بين متغيرات البحث. وأخيراً، تؤشر نتائج اختبار LM على صلاحية النموذج المقدم. تؤشر نتائج البحث على أهمية التركيز على خلق بيئة مناسبة من قبل السلطات وصانعي القرار وذلك لتشجيع نمو القطاع الخاص في اقتصاد الدولة المسيطر عليه انتاج النفط والنفقات العامة، كما ان الاستثمار العام يتطلب إصلاحات معينة من قبل السلطات.
التنزيلات
تفاصيل المقالة
المراجع
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